"I don't know if it's a magnitude 6.5 or 7.3, but it's definitely an earthquake." That's how Richard Haass, one of America's leading foreign policy experts, describes the latest U.S.-Israel relationship tensions after President Joe Biden's decision to halt the transfer of ammunition shipments to Israel in case it goes deeper into Gaza's southernmost city of Rafah – where, since the start of the war half a year ago, over a million Palestinians have found shelter.
Haass, who served in senior positions in the two Bush administrations, and later led the Council on Foreign Relations – a think-tank specializing in foreign policy – spoke with Haaretz during a short visit to Israel this week. He met with leading political figures, experts and journalists during his trip, and came away with one worrying conclusion: Israel knows what it wants to achieve in Gaza on a tactical level, but has no clear strategy for the war.
This, he says, is one of the key factors behind Biden's decision to withhold powerful bombs from the Israeli government. "The closest parallel in the history of the relationship is the Suez crisis, in 1956, when President Eisenhower threatened sanctions on Israel." Biden has not gone that far, and his administration said on Thursday it will continue to provide Israel with other kinds of weapons. But according to Haass, it's hard to think of another example of such a public dispute with such significant consequences.
Haass says Israeli politicians and pundits are wrong to view the entire ordeal as politically motivated. Biden, he says, is paying a political price with young voters and American Muslims for his continued support of Israel, but will also pay a price with pro-Israel voters for now applying greater pressure on the Netanyahu government. "I'm not saying there's no politics involved in this, but Biden has been the greatest defender of the U.S.-Israel relationship in his administration. Some of his aides had wanted to do this a long time ago."
In his view, Biden is frustrated with Netanyahu's conduct of the war. "This was building up for a while, and Rafah was the straw that broke the camel's back," Haass explained. "There's real skepticism in the administration that Rafah will bring about a deal for the hostages, like the Israelis have been saying." Biden, he added, thought that Israel should have prioritized negotiations for a deal over attacking the city.
"Biden finds this very hard to do – he's of a generation that feels a real connection to Israel. His instinct is to give Israel everything it needs," Haass added. Still, however, he thinks there's an exit ramp for Israel and the United States – if only Netanyahu would be willing to take it. Before visiting Israel, the foreign policy stalwart stopped in several Arab states, where he heard a real desire for a diplomatic breakthrough with the Jewish state.
As Haass sees it, "Israel has an unbelievable opportunity to cement an alliance with the Arab world against Iran. The Arabs are so ready for this. They want it. They don't trust the United States, they think we want to pivot to Asia and leave them alone against Iran. So they're interested in working more closely than ever with Israel. But they also need something in it for the Palestinians, and they're so frustrated with Netanyahu right now."
This, he concluded, is the deal Biden is trying to push Israel to accept – so far to no avail, mainly due to Netanyahu's own politics.